Week Ahead Economic Preview: Week of 26 May 2025

Updated on 26 May 2025

As we begin the final week of May 2025, financial markets are closely watching a series of crucial economic updates from the U.S., China, and across the globe. With rising concerns over growth and inflation, upcoming data releases and central bank signals may shift investor sentiment and policy expectations.

United States: GDP Revision, PCE Inflation & Fed Minutes

• GDP Revision: The second estimate of Q1 U.S. GDP is due. A 0.3% contraction was previously reported, sparking worries of a potential slowdown. The updated figures will be critical in gauging underlying economic health. • PCE Inflation: April’s Core PCE Price Index — the Fed’s favored inflation gauge — will shape expectations for interest rate moves. If inflation remains sticky, it could delay rate cuts. • FOMC Minutes: The Federal Reserve will release minutes from its latest meeting, giving more insight into internal discussions about policy direction in light of persistent inflation and softening demand.

China: PMI Watch

China’s National Bureau of Statistics is set to release May’s PMI data. This will offer clues on the country’s economic resilience in the face of new U.S. tariffs and domestic demand challenges. Analysts are looking for signs of either stabilization or further slowdown.

Global Snapshot: Trade Frictions & Slowing Growth

Global surveys are painting a picture of cooling economic activity. In the U.S., export weakness continues for the second straight month. Meanwhile, China’s data will be key in understanding broader trade impacts. Other major economies including the Eurozone, Japan, and India will also release inflation, retail, and output figures this week.

Key Diary Highlights

May 27–31 Events to Watch:

• 🇺🇸 U.S. Durable Goods Orders, Consumer Confidence, Core PCE

• 🇨🇳 China Industrial Profits (Apr), NBS PMI (May)

• 🇪🇺 Eurozone Economic Sentiment, Germany CPI (prelim)

• 🇯🇵 Japan Tokyo CPI, Industrial Production

• 🇮🇳 India GDP Q1

• Central bank decisions from New Zealand, South Korea, and South Africa

Summary

This week is packed with pivotal data that could set the tone for the summer. As inflation trends and growth signals diverge globally, markets will be on edge awaiting clarity from policymakers and economic indicators. Traders and analysts alike should stay alert — this could be a defining week for global macro sentiment.