Weekly Market Outlook: Powell’s Testimony, May PCE Data, and Key Earnings in Focus

Updated on 23 June 2025

All Eyes on Powell’s Congressional Testimony

Investors are entering a crucial week where macroeconomic data, central bank commentary, and major corporate earnings converge to shape market sentiment. With geopolitical tensions simmering in the background and inflation pressures lingering, financial markets are preparing for what could be a pivotal stretch.

The spotlight is firmly on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who is scheduled to testify before Congress this Tuesday and Wednesday. His semiannual monetary policy report to the House Financial Services Committee and the Senate Banking Committee will be closely watched for any changes in tone following last week’s decision to hold interest rates steady. Although the Fed has continued to signal one potential rate cut before the year ends, markets remain skeptical, particularly as inflation remains stubbornly above target and economic uncertainty lingers.

What the Market Wants to Hear

Powell’s remarks are expected to address key topics including the central bank’s current inflation outlook, the resilience of the labor market, and whether recent tariff-driven cost increases might affect the Fed’s plans. Market participants will be listening carefully for any signs of a shift in the Fed’s forward guidance, particularly as policymakers try to balance inflation control with a slowing global economy.

Inflation in the Spotlight: May PCE Data Due

While Powell’s testimony will likely dominate headlines early in the week, the biggest data release arrives on Friday, when the Commerce Department publishes the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for May. This is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and a critical indicator for monetary policy decisions.

Economists expect core PCE inflation to rise about 2.6% year-over-year—still above the Fed’s 2% target, although more moderate than recent highs. A higher-than-expected reading could dampen hopes for near-term rate cuts and fuel further volatility in interest rate-sensitive sectors.

Big Earnings to Watch: FedEx, Micron, Nike

Alongside the macro focus, corporate earnings will provide critical insights into the health of the consumer and key industries. FedEx is scheduled to report earnings on Tuesday after the closing bell. As a major global logistics provider, its results will offer a window into shipping demand, global trade trends, and consumer spending patterns. Analysts anticipate a modest revenue dip as the company grapples with slowing volumes and higher input costs.

On Wednesday, all eyes will turn to Micron Technology, which will release its latest quarterly figures amid ongoing interest in the semiconductor space. Micron’s report will shed light on the state of memory chip demand, inventory normalization, and capital expenditure trends—key areas of focus as the chip industry recovers from a prolonged downturn.

Nike will round out the earnings calendar on Thursday, offering a barometer for global consumer confidence and retail demand. The athletic giant faces a mix of strong brand loyalty and ongoing margin pressures linked to production costs and currency fluctuations. Its results and forward guidance will be particularly important for gauging the strength of discretionary spending heading into the second half of the year.

Geopolitical Tensions Add Complexity

Adding further complexity to this week’s market setup are geopolitical risks stemming from the recent U.S. strikes on Iranian military infrastructure. Oil prices have risen sharply, and safe-haven assets like gold and the U.S. dollar are once again in demand. Investors are becoming increasingly cautious, worried that rising commodity prices and global tensions could derail the Fed’s progress on inflation—or even trigger new price pressures.

Final Thoughts: A Pivotal Week Ahead

As we head into this high-stakes week, financial markets remain delicately balanced. With Powell’s testimony, key inflation data, and corporate earnings all converging in the span of just a few days, volatility may return quickly. For now, investors are bracing for new signals—and hoping for clarity in an environment that remains anything but calm.